BJP in West Bengal: Concerns Over Bangladesh or a Shifting Dynamic?

 The nearly fifteen-year-long "Mamata era" has come to an end on the political landscape of India's West Bengal. 

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to assume power for the first time. Analysts suggest that the emergence of Hindutva politics in this neighboring state could have multiple repercussions for Bangladesh's political and social environment. There are worries about new pressures on bilateral ties, particularly concerning border disputes, infiltration issues, and communal polarization. **Potential Risks and Challenges According to Analysts** Political analyst and researcher Altaf Parvez views this political shift as a multi-faceted challenge for Bangladesh. Speaking to The Daily Star, he noted that the ongoing processes (NRC and SIR) aimed at stripping voting rights from roughly 5 million individuals in Assam and West Bengal together will introduce a fresh dimension to the border crisis. A significant portion of this population is Muslim, and within the BJP, there is a strong political inclination to label them as "Bangladeshis" or "illegal immigrants." The NRC is India's National Register of Citizens, which has declared hundreds of thousands of people stateless, particularly in Assam, under the guise of verifying "illegal immigrants." Meanwhile, the SIR is a revision process of the Election Commission's electoral roll, through which many have recently been accused of losing their voting rights. Altaf Parvez stated that BJP leaders frequently make anti-Bangladesh remarks by portraying those who lost citizenship rights in Assam and West Bengal as their adversaries. Now that the BJP holds power in both states, the pressure of "push-ins" at the border under the pretext of repatriating "illegal Bangladeshis" is expected to intensify. He also voiced concern that if minorities are marginalized due to religious polarization in West Bengal, some might seek to migrate to Bangladesh for safety, posing a significant challenge for the new government in Dhaka. According to Altaf Parvez, leaders like Himanta Biswa Sarma of Assam and Shuvendu Adhikari of West Bengal use "anti-Bangladesh" rhetoric as a political tool to boost their standing within the BJP's central leadership. Consequently, fears of "push-ins" or "push-backs" in West Bengal may grow in the future. Altaf Parvez also offered another observation. He said that members of the Matua community might now assert their right to citizenship. If the CAA is implemented for them, the trend of Bangladeshi minorities moving to India could also increase. **Communal Polarization and Regional Instability** West Bengal journalist and political analyst Ark Bhaduri views the BJP's victory as a "dangerous signal" for both nations. He told The Daily Star that the primary focus of this year's assembly election campaign was that West Bengal was overrun by Bangladeshi infiltrators. Regarding the communal remarks made by Shuvendu Adhikari, the likely BJP chief ministerial candidate, Bhaduri noted that even on election day, Shuvendu stated in the Bhavanipur constituency that "Bangladeshi Rohingyas" and "Bangla speakers" were present. The BJP's overall campaign alleged that millions of Rohingyas were in West Bengal, all arriving from Bangladesh, and must be expelled. Ark Bhaduri also believes that Subhendu's aggressive statements, labeling Indian minority citizens as "Bangladeshi infiltrators" or "Rohingyas," swayed a large segment of voters. He expressed concern, noting that in Bangladesh's recent election results, Jamaat-e-Islami performed well in border districts. Adjacent to this, a BJP support ring has formed here. Thus, two extreme fundamentalist forces are facing each other, indicating a dangerous scenario for both countries. According to Ark Bhaduri, communal tension will escalate in the border regions of the two countries in the future. Both the BJP and Jamaat-e-Islami will sustain it for their political gains. As a result, the safety of peace-loving and non-communal people in both nations will be at greater risk. **What Will Happen to Bilateral Issues Like the Teesta and Ganga Agreements?** Analysts believe that the BJP's victory might also create opportunities in certain areas. Altaf Parvez thinks that until now, the central government in Delhi has used Mamata Banerjee's objections as an excuse regarding the Teesta water-sharing agreement. Now that the same party is in power at both the center and the state, Bangladesh has a clear opportunity to make strong demands on water distribution. Furthermore, new avenues for discussion have opened up concerning the renewal of the Ganga Treaty and resolving the visa issue. Bangladesh's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Shama Obaid, expressed a positive outlook on this matter. On Monday, he told reporters that the West Bengal elections are an internal Indian affair and will not negatively impact bilateral relations with Bangladesh. He expressed optimism that the renewal of the Ganga Treaty and the visa issue resolution would proceed through discussions. **Border Management and Geopolitics** Kolkata-based journalist Shuvojit Bagchi believes that managing West Bengal's more than 2,000-kilometer border with Bangladesh will now be a topic of discussion. The extent to which this election outcome will affect relations with Bangladesh is a crucial question. Future relations will depend on how they engage and collaborate with Bangladesh on border issues. Altaf Parvez noted that civilians often face persecution at the border, even after the border agreement. Many have families and employment on both sides, often leading them to attempt desperate crossings. If the BJP tightens border management, the risk of persecution will also rise. Analysts suggest that the BJP's rise in West Bengal and the promotion of hardline Hindutva politics could deepen the divide between the peoples of the two countries. If minorities on one side face renewed pressure due to religious identity or dietary habits, there is a risk that its reaction could incite extremist forces on the other side. While the BJP's victory in West Bengal has opened the door for realizing rightful claims to Teesta water, it also carries the risk of border instability due to communal polarization and fears of push-ins.